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BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012
...SANDY MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM GREAT ABACO...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 77.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 420 MI...670 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA
EAST COAST TO ST AUGUSTINE.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE IS DISCONTINUED.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO DUCK...INCLUDING PAMLICO
AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
* GREAT ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAVANNAH RIVER TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF ST AUGUSTINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* BERMUDA
IN ADDITION...GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...
INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.1 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H...AND A GENERAL NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
SATURDAY...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SANDY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 275
MILES...445 KM. A NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 49
MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN GREAT ABACO AND
GRAND BAHAMA ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA IN THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL...SANDY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6
TO 12 INCHES ACROSS HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES..ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN FLORIDA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE
TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
BAHAMAS WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
FLORIDA COAST WITHIN WARNING AREA...1 TO 3 FT
NORTH CAROLINA WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...3 TO 5 FT
REMAINDER OF NORTH CAROLINA AND SE VIRGINIA INCLUDING LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE
AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES.
GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER
LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED PERIODS
OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING FROM FLORIDA THROUGH
THE CAROLINAS AND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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